When you think of a ‘True Blue’ constituency, then Tunbridge Wells in Kent might well be one of the first to come to mind. 

It is a largely rural community in the commuter belt and has been solidly Tory ever since its inception back in 1974, yet they are not the betting favourites to hold the seat in the General Election. We dive into why that might be as we look at the Tunbridge Wells Odds here at Betfred…

Whenever an incumbent MP steps down, it does provide a small opening for opposition parties to exploit, as that personal vote will evaporate. This will be the case here as Greg Clark as the former Secretary of State for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy announced last week that he would not be seeking re-election and means this seat will have a new MP for the first time since 2005.

In his place wearing the blue rosette, will be a rather well-known face, as LBC Presenter Iain Dale has thrown his hat into the ring in another attempt to win a seat in the House of Commons. The former Daily Telegraph columnist stood for the party back in 2005, when he unsuccessfully tried to beat Norman Lamb in North Norfolk but fell short as the Lib Dem MP saw his majority widen from just 483 to 10,606.

Once again it will be the Liberal Democrats who Dale will be wary of as Sir Ed Davey’s party are looking strong in commuter belt areas all around the capital and indeed, took control of the local council back in May for the first time since 1998, as they currently hold 22 of the 39 seats at the Town Hall.

Those numbers look promising for the party but I would pass on a note of caution as a group of Independent Councillors were able to unite under an ‘Alliance’ banner and were able to get around 9% of the vote. The people that voted for them in May should be considered wildcards.

What we did see in Tunbridge Wells in the local election was a lack of enthusiasm for Reform UK, with their five candidates amassing just 906 votes between them. This indicates that we won’t be seeing a big showing from the right-wing party in this constituency and that certainly plays into the hands of the Conservatives.

If the Tories have picked a well-known face, then the same can’t be said for the Lib Dems as they’ve gone with former Army Officer and author Mike Martin. What he does bring to the table is the fact he's based in the borough and his current position of Senior Fellow of King’s College London, is certainly one that will tick a fair few boxes among the electorate looking for an alternative academic to represent them in the corridors of power. Iain Dale though is also a resident, so the fact the Tories have not parachuted someone in, curtails this angle somewhat.

One of the big questions though in this seat is just how much of an impact the tactical vote will have. Labour got 14% of the ballots in the local elections but are not expected to be remotely competitive in the General Election. Do Labour supporters hold their nose and vote for the Lib Dems to get the Tory out and indeed the same can be said of the 7% who voted Green. If two-thirds of those people go to the polls with a view of voting for the candidate best placed to beat the Conservatives then it makes the seat very much a toss-up.

This comes to bear when we look at the betting market and here at Betfred, we think it is pretty much dead even with the Lib Dems a tiny favourite at 10/11 with the Tories 11/10 to hold on to the seat. Labour are 6/1 but they are not a factor here. This is undoubtedly a two-horse race and if the Tories can’t hold on here, a seat that even in the 1997 shellacking, they won by 7,506 votes then boy, it is going to be a rough night for the current party of power.

*You can keep up to date with all the latest Tunbridge Wells Odds for the 2024 General Election over on betfred.com

Personally, I would have the Tories as the favourite at this point but not by a lot. This is a genuine toss-up seat and one that will reveal plenty on election night. Iain Dale should on paper be a strong candidate but he is getting a very late start and his primary opponent will be relying strongly on the Anti-Tory vote to coalesce around him. This one will be genuinely fascinating as the campaign rolls on.

We’ll cover this ongoing story from now through to General Election day itself from our team here at Betfred Insights. Keep checking out our coverage from the Next Prime Minister markets through to key individual constituencies over the coming weeks as we follow the twists and turns from a betting perspective for the 2024 General Election in our Politics Betting Tips section.